Just Like Max

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 82

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength15%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.2

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-11	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-08-18	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-31	Ellis Park	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-06-26	Churchill Downs	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-06-13	Churchill Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-05-23	Churchill Downs	?	7th	6th	+1	4.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▬

Strength94%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/03/2026	6th	14/1	26%	17%	-0.10
08/04/2026	4th	12/1	37%	50%	+0.13
29/04/2026	7th	40/1	0%	33%	+0.33
23/05/2026	7th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
13/06/2026	5th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00
26/06/2026	6th	8/1	58%	29%	-0.29
31/07/2026	1st	7/2	82%	100%	+0.18
18/08/2026	3rd	8/1	58%	71%	+0.14
11/09/2026	5th	14/1	26%	60%	+0.34