8
Lavender Earl
8yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 74
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength6%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 09/10/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 30/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |