5
Mansfield Tiger
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 85
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
54%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength95%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 02/09/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 29/09/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 04/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 15/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |