Speed Bias
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 95
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -12.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 24/09/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/10/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 13/03/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.46 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 03/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 10/11 | 95% | 43% | -0.52 |