IvyArcIvyArc
3

Big Boy Thunder

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 81

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

85%

Place Prob

62%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Churchill Downs 05/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 6f 1195/11C9C9 @ Turfway Park 21/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 56 · 6f110y 120 · beat its mark21/12/2025 · OR 56 parC6 @ Turfway Park 08/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 65 · 6f 120 · below its mark08/02/2026 · OR 65 par8/02C6OR 65C9 @ Turfway Park 13/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 72 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 72 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 73 · 6f 122 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 73 par15/06C6OR 73C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 74 · 6f 122 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 74 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 81 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 81 par6/08C6OR 81C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 02/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 78 · 6f 120 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 78 par2/09C6OR 78projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-08-06Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th6th0
2026-07-14Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-06-15Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-03-13Turfway Park?2nd5th−3
2026-02-08Turfway Park?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/1113/036/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength82%

Delivery trend -5.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/11/20259th40/10%11%+0.11
21/12/20252nd20/10%88%+0.88
08/02/20269th33/10%11%+0.11
13/03/20262nd3/184%75%-0.09
15/06/20262nd11/271%88%+0.16
14/07/20262nd10/147%83%+0.36
06/08/20266th13/266%55%-0.11
02/09/20262nd10/382%88%+0.05