2
Mayweather
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 73
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-08-08 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 08/08/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 30/08/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 36% | -0.40 |
| 05/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 13/12/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 27% | -0.25 |
| 02/09/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 38% | -0.44 |