4
Thunder Appeal
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 85
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-01-16 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-12-08 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-09-08 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2024 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 36% | -0.48 |
| 08/12/2024 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 16/01/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 28/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 55% | -0.24 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 44% | -0.40 |