IvyArcIvyArc
7

Box

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 29

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS6/08C6C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 26/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 90 · 5f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/08/2026 · OR 90 par26/08C6OR 90projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th3rd+3
2026-08-06Horseshoe Indianapolis?7th4th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0826/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength54%

Delivery trend +16.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/08/20267th20/10%0%0.00
26/08/20266th33/10%17%+0.17