IvyArcIvyArc
4

Lil Chance

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 48

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

49%

Place Prob

44%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength9%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 45 · 5f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 45 par8/04C6OR 45C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 47 · 5f110y Fas 120 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 47 parC9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 05/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 52 · 6f Slo 120 · below its mark05/05/2026 · OR 52 par5/05C9OR 52C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 21/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 58 · 5f110y 120 · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 58 parC9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 18/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 62 · 6f Gd 117 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 62 par18/06C9OR 62C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 47 · 5f110y 120 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 47 parC9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 44 · 1m 117 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 44 par28/07C9OR 44C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 20/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 43 · 5f110y 120 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 43 parC9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 49 · 6f 117 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 49 par8/09C9OR 49projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-08-20Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th5th0
2026-07-28Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th6th0
2026-07-08Horseshoe Indianapolis?9th9th0
2026-06-18Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-05-21Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0421/0528/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/04/20267th25/10%40%+0.40
15/04/20264th9/276%57%-0.19
05/05/20264th10/147%50%+0.03
21/05/20264th3/184%40%-0.44
18/06/20263rd7/491%33%-0.57
08/07/20269th25/10%27%+0.27
28/07/20266th20/10%17%+0.17
20/08/20265th15/261%50%-0.11
08/09/20263rd16/116%75%+0.59