Hot Dawg

2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 53

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength52%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-05	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-06-17	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 14-14 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -11.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/06/2026	4th	15/8	90%	40%	-0.50
05/08/2026	8th	3/1	84%	22%	-0.62