Ignoring Alana

2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 65

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

18%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark

Move▼2

Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-07	Kentucky Downs	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2026-08-05	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-07-08	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +14.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/07/2026	4th	13/2	66%	67%	+0.01
05/08/2026	2nd	5/2	87%	89%	+0.02
07/09/2026	7th	16/1	16%	45%	+0.30