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10

Seismic Shift

2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 61

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Ellis Park 06/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS6/07C6C6 @ Ellis Park 23/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 65 · 1m Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 65 par23/08C6OR 65projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Ellis Park?9th6th+3
2026-07-06Ellis Park?9th6th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0723/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/07/20269th40/10%20%+0.20
23/08/20269th40/10%27%+0.27