Zarzuela

2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 60

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

91%

Place Prob

64%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark

Move▼2

Strength80%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.1

Today:

Class gap: +2.4

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-22	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-08-30	Kentucky Downs	?	10th	7th	+3	3.0
2026-08-17	Ellis Park	?	5th	3rd	+2	7.4
2026-04-24	Keeneland	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength32%

Delivery trend -12.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/04/2026	3rd	25/1	0%	50%	+0.50
17/08/2026	5th	12/1	37%	33%	-0.04
30/08/2026	10th	50/1	0%	18%	+0.18
22/09/2026	6th	12/1	37%	38%	+0.01