
Aunt Leila's Sky
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 58
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -26.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/07/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 24/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 14/09/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |