2

Aunt Leila's Sky

4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 58

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 02/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS2/06C6C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 07/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 80 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 80 par7/07C5OR 80C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 24/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 66 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 66 par24/08C5OR 66C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 62 · 5f Fm 119 · below its mark14/09/2026 · OR 62 par14/09C8OR 62projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th8th0
2026-08-24Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th3rd+3
2026-07-07Horseshoe Indianapolis?7th4th+3
2026-06-02Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/067/0724/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 11-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -26.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/06/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
07/07/20267th13/266%0%-0.66
24/08/20266th5/174%17%-0.57
14/09/20268th7/282%0%-0.82