4
Miss Candy Pop
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 58
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength60%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 29/10/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 10/11/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 07/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 26/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/09/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 22/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |