7
Our Lady Donna D
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 62
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-04-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-02-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-01-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength87%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 10/12/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 07/01/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 12/02/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 44% | -0.29 |
| 15/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 18/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |