11
Pernicious
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 56
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength76%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 10/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 13/12/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 4/5 | 96% | 43% | -0.53 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 18/08/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |