8
Sassy Julia
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 43
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength14%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 12/11/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 10/01/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 04/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/09/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |