Sound The Siren

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 55

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#10

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.4

Today:

Class gap: +1.1

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-05-20	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-04-26	Churchill Downs	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2025-07-05	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	11th	11th	0	1.0
2025-06-16	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0
2025-05-13	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0
2025-04-24	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	11th	9th	+2	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▬

Strength95%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/04/2025	11th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
13/05/2025	1st	66/1	0%	100%	+1.00
16/06/2025	4th	13/2	66%	50%	-0.16
05/07/2025	11th	33/1	0%	9%	+0.09
26/04/2026	7th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
20/05/2026	3rd	20/1	0%	50%	+0.50