1
Amy El
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 70
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-04-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 28/10/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 12/11/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 15/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 13/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 91% | +0.65 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 91% | +0.05 |