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3

Whakaari

3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 62

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

14%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 17/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 12017/09C6C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 61 · 5f110y Slo 120 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 61 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 27/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 51 · 1m70y 120 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 51 par27/10C6OR 51C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 21/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 50 · 5f110y 120 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 50 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 12/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 45 · 6f Fas 120 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 45 par12/05C6OR 45C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 47 · 1m110y Slo 120 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 47 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 50 · 1m Fm 120 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 50 par6/07C6OR 50C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 29/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 56 · 1m110y 120 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 56 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 63 · 1m70y Fas 117 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 63 par15/09C6OR 63projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th5th0
2026-07-29Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-07-06Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-06-10Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-05-12Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0
2026-04-21Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0921/046/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength79%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/09/20254th33/10%70%+0.70
08/10/20254th2/189%40%-0.49
27/10/20254th4/179%40%-0.39
21/04/20266th10/147%17%-0.31
12/05/20264th33/10%70%+0.70
10/06/20262nd16/116%88%+0.72
06/07/20262nd3/184%90%+0.06
29/07/20262nd3/184%88%+0.03
15/09/20265th11/893%43%-0.50