1
Aph Battle Captain
4yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 41
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Maiden · 1f 80y
#13
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength52%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: BHA38
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-05-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2024-09-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-09-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2024-07-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-06-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA38 | 8th | 3rd | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength10%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2024 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 05/06/2024 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 27/06/2024 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 16/07/2024 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 04/09/2024 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 25/09/2024 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 22/05/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 10/06/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |