6
Kapetanios
6yo Gelding · 10-5
Marseille-borely · Prix Hotel Barriere Le Royal Deauville Stakes · 1m 1f 207y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
57%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Deauville | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Deauville | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Deauville | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-02-24 | Lyon La Soie | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Lyon La Soie | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 04/01/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 21/01/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 45% | -0.37 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 24/02/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 64% | -0.23 |
| 12/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 08/09/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |