1
Port Santa Ponsa
5yo Gelding · 10-12
Marseille-borely · Prix Hotel Barriere Le Royal Deauville Stakes · 1m 1f 207y
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
38%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Salon-De-Provence | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Dieppe | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Chantilly | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Chantilly | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength26%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 13/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 03/03/2026 | 14th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 87% | +0.08 |
| 14/04/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 64% | -0.25 |
| 29/04/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 16/05/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 9% | +0.04 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 02/09/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |