4
Excelsior
7yo Gelding · 9-4
Marseille-borely · Prix Lucien Frauciel Handicap · 1m 4f 203y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Deauville | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | 3 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Salon-De-Provence | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Fontainebleau | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 29/12/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 18/02/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 20% | -0.35 |
| 06/03/2026 | 8th | 5/2 | 87% | 13% | -0.74 |
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 17/06/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 30% | -0.54 |
| 23/07/2026 | 14th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 62% | +0.06 |