6
Marie De Prusse
4yo Filly · 8-7
Marseille-borely · Prix Lucien Frauciel Handicap · 1m 4f 203y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength53%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Vichy | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Toulouse | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vichy | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 69% | +0.17 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 93% | +0.19 |
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 93% | +0.12 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 93% | -0.02 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 22/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.11 |