3
Bon Dernier
4yo Colt · 9-1
Marseille-borely · Prix Henri Cabassu Claiming Stakes · 1m 99y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲4
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C8.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -4.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Salon-De-Provence | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | 30 | 12th | 43th | −26 |
| 2026-03-22 | Marseille | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Marseille | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-19 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength59%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 28/10/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 27/11/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 19/01/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 79% | +0.05 |
| 11/02/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 70% | +0.09 |
| 04/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 25/04/2026 | 12th | 8/1 | 58% | 8% | -0.50 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 75% | +0.70 |