Chop Val

9yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 76

Marseille-borely · Prix Henri Cabassu Claiming Stakes · 1m 99y

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength43%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C3.9

Today: 4

Class gap: +0.1

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-02	Lyon-Parilly	?	2nd	3rd	−1	7.4
2026-08-06	Vichy	4	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-25	Vichy	4	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-06-20	Marseille	4	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-05-30	Lyon-Parilly	4	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-05-18	Marseille-borely	3	11th	10th	+1	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength97%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/02/2026	13th	28/1	0%	14%	+0.14
22/03/2026	10th	22/1	0%	18%	+0.18
03/04/2026	2nd	20/1	0%	92%	+0.92
18/05/2026	11th	22/1	0%	33%	+0.33
30/05/2026	2nd	13/2	66%	80%	+0.14
20/06/2026	9th	16/1	16%	33%	+0.18
25/07/2026	2nd	14/1	26%	91%	+0.65
06/08/2026	3rd	9/2	76%	83%	+0.07
02/09/2026	2nd	10/3	82%	89%	+0.06