4
Bell Song
6yo Mare · 9-1
Marseille-borely · Prix Des Marseillaises Handicap · 5f 212y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Moulins | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Vichy | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Marseille | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Marseille | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength94%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 09/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 73% | -0.17 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |