1
Stellar Chop
4yo Gelding · 9-6
Marseille-borely · Prix Des Marseillaises Handicap · 5f 212y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Vichy | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Tarbes | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Marseille-borely | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Marseille-borely | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Moulins | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/03/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 09/04/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 22% | -0.49 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 85% | +0.16 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 08/09/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 45% | -0.28 |