5
Possenhofen
3yo Gelding · 9-3
Marseille-borely · Prix De L'union Hippique De La Mediterranee Handicap · 5f 212y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Marseille | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-05-06 | Marseille-borely | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-21 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-26 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 08/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 05/01/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 26/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |