9
Fiamma
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 76
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
87%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 26/02/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 14/04/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |