3
Positive Carry
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 75
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-10-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-08-11 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-07-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2025-05-16 | Pimlico | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2024 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 22/02/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 23/03/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/05/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 16/05/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/07/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |