Somesugarnspice
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 86
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-05 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 22/02/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 05/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |