8
Arak
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 85
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-09-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength14%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 04/08/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 16/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |