2
Letmeknowbeforeugo
5yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 88
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 12/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 20/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |