3
Misterchilliwilli
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 83
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 24/08/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 17/09/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 12/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |