10
Unpredictable Bay
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 84
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength49%
Delivery trend +7.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 23/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 01/04/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 88% | -0.04 |
| 03/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |