Loaded Once More
8yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 78
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 20/04/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 04/05/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.46 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 14/07/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |