Waterworks
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 78
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
57%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 11/01/2026 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 10% | -0.69 |
| 01/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |