2
Bet On Bret
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 72
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 26/03/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 20% | -0.70 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |