5
Pancho Slips Away
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 74
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
77%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 08/01/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/5 | 98% | 80% | -0.18 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 07/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |