1
Valid Sense
4yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 70
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength82%
Delivery trend -8.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 11/01/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 06/03/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |