4
Youreawizard Harry
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 88
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-08-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 21/09/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |