4
Turf Cat
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 85
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 20/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/12/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 45% | -0.37 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |