Disposable Income

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 70

Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

17%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength50%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.5

Today:

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-18	Presque Isle Downs	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2026-08-04	Presque Isle Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-15	Presque Isle Downs	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-06-23	Presque Isle Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength5%

Delivery trend -16.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/06/2026	1st	6/1	68%	100%	+0.32
15/07/2026	3rd	6/1	68%	60%	-0.08
04/08/2026	5th	1/1	95%	20%	-0.75
18/09/2026	9th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00