Fiction

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 67

Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.5

Today:

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 5

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-06	Mountaineer	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0
2026-08-10	Mountaineer	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2026-07-27	Mountaineer	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-07-06	Mountaineer	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2024-11-24	Woodbine	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2024-09-05	Colonial Downs	?	10th	8th	+2	1.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▲

Strength85%

Delivery trend +13.2% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
05/09/2024	10th	5/2	87%	0%	-0.87
24/11/2024	3rd	11/4	86%	67%	-0.19
06/07/2026	2nd	11/2	71%	83%	+0.12
27/07/2026	3rd	9/4	88%	71%	-0.17
10/08/2026	2nd	13/8	91%	83%	-0.08
06/09/2026	1st	10/11	95%	100%	+0.05