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Stanz Coming

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 81

Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

78%

Place Prob

55%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength63%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 13/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS13/08C6C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 20/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 71 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 71 par20/05C6OR 71C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 15/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 77 · 6f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/06/2026 · OR 77 par15/06C6OR 77C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 77 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 77 par20/07C6OR 77C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 05/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 79 · 6f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/08/2026 · OR 79 par5/08C5OR 79projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-05Presque Isle Downs?6th3rd+3
2026-07-20Presque Isle Downs?1st-1th+2
2026-06-15Presque Isle Downs?4th2nd+2
2026-05-20Presque Isle Downs?2nd0th+2
2025-08-13Presque Isle Downs?4th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0820/0515/0620/075/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength98%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/08/20254th15/261%63%+0.02
20/05/20262nd6/168%83%+0.15
15/06/20264th9/276%57%-0.19
20/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
05/08/20266th16/116%29%+0.13