Calvin's Ride
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 103
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
86%
Place Prob
68%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 2.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-30 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 02/09/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 15/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 20% | -0.71 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |