2
Dowagiac Chief
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 92
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength63%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 19/09/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 26/10/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |